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Monday, May 21, 2012

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A Resource for the Professional Predictive Modeler.

The Book

This website presents the ebook, Predictive Modeling - Principles & Practice, written by Syed Muzayan Mehmud. This book aims to be a resource for a predictive modeling practitioner. It contains original as well as carefully selected and constantly curated concepts regarding the principles and practice of predictive modeling.

Interest in predictive modeling has grown in recent years, so much so that we have multiple buzz words describing similar concepts. Data mining, business intelligence, pattern recognition, etc. all purport to address a general class of problem in principle, however in practice predictive modeling has still not evolved beyond its somewhat parochial programming roots. Predictive modeling is not all about programming. It is the science and art of distilling data and related information into actionable insight and requires a disciplined, rigorous and comprehensive approach to problem-solving.

A motivation for writing this book was to disassociate the practice of predictive modeling with specific syntax, algorithms, or software, and to provide integrated principles and practical knowledge necessary to produce high quality analytics. This book is perhaps most useful for those starting out on the journey of predictive modeling, but will also benefit as a reference and resource for the more experienced practitioners.

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The Applications

An application brings together all the components of predictive modeling into one package. The usefulness of this package depends, among many things, on design. A good design means that an application is transparent, as simple as possible, efficient, adaptive, fail-safe, scalable, with well-defined performance metrics, and an uncompromising delivery of a great user experience.

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The Algorithms

Algorithms are at the heart of the practice of predictive modeling. The algorithm's relevance, performance, transparency/communicability, cost etc. all factor into the quality of the model that is created and its usefulness. This chapter presents information on available algorithms, along with practical guidance on implementation and use.

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Featured Applications
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The Applications An application brings together all the components of predictive modeling into one package. The usefulness of this package depends, among man... Read more
Advanced Reserving Model Advanced Reserving Model is a non-parametric model for identifying completion patterns in lagged-payment data. The objective is to model sub... Read more
Healthcare Risk Stratification An extension of the CSM framework, this system predicts future states for individuals based on their available healthcare information. The i... Read more
MAST Model Assumption Sensitivity Testing, or MAST is a simple yet powerful Microsoft Excel add-in that as the name implies, tests the sensitivit... Read more
Care Statistics & Modeling Framework {jumi[sitecontent/php/breadcrumb_one.php][6][9]} The CSM framework proposes a new measurement paradigm for healthcare. Its objective is to ... Read more
Healthcare Data Classification System An extension of the Care Statistics & Modeling Framework, the HDC system performs one of the most common tasks in healthcare data work, ... Read more
Wakely Risk Assessment Model {jumi[sitecontent/php/breadcrumb_one.php][6][7]} The Wakely Risk Assessment Model (W.R.A Model) is a tool to measure relative morbidity ris... Read more
Algorithm Comparison Engine ACE is a powerful collection of codes, processes, and software that forms the analytical basis of this book. ACE includes widely used algori... Read more
Diagnosis Coding Accuracy Risk adjustment is becoming perhaps one of the more critical factor in the revenue to healthcare organizations. This importance will only in... Read more
Waste & Abuse Detection Payors are increasingly focused on minimizing waste, and this is important not just from the point of view of business profitability, but al... Read more
AiX Algorithms AiX is a class of algorithms that have the best performance from all available approaches as tested on a wide array of datasets. Invented by... Read more
AiXPERT System AiXPERT is an online expert system targeting particular predictive modeling applications. An 'expert system' is a fancy term, but it simply ... Read more
N-Body Simulation This application presents a statistical take on an old problem, that of simulating an n-body system. The n-body algorithm finds numerous app... Read more
Healthcare Exchange Complexity Model Healthcare is a great example of a complex system. A system with many agents where we know a a fair deal about the behavior of individuals a... Read more